Europe’s demographic crisis is no longer a challenge for the future but one already reshaping the continent, the European Commission said in a new report warning that the European Union’s population is expected to shrink by 50 million people by the end of the century while growing significantly older.
The report projects that the EU’s population will fall from about 450 million today to around 400 million by 2100. By 2050, one in three Europeans is expected to be 65 or older, compared with one in five today.
“That is a great achievement, but it also raises fundamental questions: How will we ensure the workforce we need? How will we finance pensions and health care?” European Commissioner for Mediterranean Dubravka Šuica, who is responsible for demography, said in presenting the report.
The findings underscore challenges already evident in countries such as Lithuania, where deaths continue to far outnumber births.
About 18,000 children are born in Lithuania each year, while roughly 38,000 people die annually, creating a natural population decline of about 20,000 people every year, said Daumantas Stumbrys, an associate professor at Vilnius University’s Faculty of Philosophy.
“The main factor is an unfavourable population structure,” Stumbrys said. “We have relatively few people of working age, a relatively large elderly population and low fertility.”
Population forecasts for Lithuania vary widely, but all point to a declining population over the coming decades. Depending on assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration, the country’s population, which currently stands at about 2.8 million, could fall to as little as 1.3 million by 2100, while more optimistic projections put it at about 2.3 million.
According to Eurostat projections cited by Lithuanian officials, Lithuania and neighbouring Latvia are expected to experience some of the steepest population declines in the EU.
The commission said migration alone cannot reverse Europe’s demographic trends. While immigration can help offset labour shortages, it also requires investment in housing, infrastructure and integration policies.
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, said countries that have managed immigration most successfully have focused on attracting students and skilled workers who later join the labour force, rather than relying on migration simply to boost population numbers.
He argued that raising the retirement age remains one of the most effective ways to address the fiscal consequences of an aging population because it both extends working lives and shortens the period during which pensions are paid.
Increasing birth rates is a more difficult challenge, Kirkegaard said, arguing that governments should focus on helping people who want children by expanding affordable child care and making it easier for parents to return to work, including through part-time employment and flexible working arrangements.
As part of its response, the European Commission is considering establishing a dedicated agency to study demographic trends. It has also previously encouraged member states to create ministries responsible for demographic policy. Croatia, Slovenia and Italy are currently the only EU countries with such ministries.
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