Ukraine is in a strong position for talks with Moscow as Russia becomes increasingly weakened by the war, Finland’s President, Alexander Stubb, has said in an interview with the news portal 15min.
He also suggested that Europe could help facilitate dialogue between Ukraine and Russia.
“The leverage is very simple. Ukraine is winning this war,” Stubb said. “If we look at the past months, and the war more broadly, the first year was about survival for Ukraine. The following four years were about resilience. Now it comes down to mathematics. Ukraine is ahead.”
He added: “Ukraine holds all the cards. That gives it leverage.”
Stubb said Moscow may now be more willing to enter discussions as public support for the war in Russia declines, following Ukrainian strikes deeper inside Russian territory and growing dissatisfaction over Kremlin-imposed internet and social media restrictions.
“Once again, Ukraine is in a strong position,” he said. “The United States is now heavily engaged in Iran. So perhaps some form of European mediation could be useful.”
Speaking to the public broadcaster LRT, the Finnish president later clarified that Europe could primarily assist efforts to secure a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.
“This is not yet being discussed,” he said. “There have been ceasefires lasting several days, but perhaps Europeans could help the Americans on this issue.”
Lithuania’s President, Gitanas Nausėda, has taken a different view, arguing that talks with Vladimir Putin should only begin once Russia demonstrates a genuine willingness to end the war – including by halting hostilities and pursuing a ceasefire.
Asked by 15min about the possibility of Russian aggression against the Baltic states in order to test NATO, Stubb said Moscow had the capability but not the intent, given its failure to achieve key objectives in Ukraine.
“Russia has not achieved its strategic aim of making Ukraine Russian. Ukraine has become European,” he said. “Nor has Russia succeeded in preventing NATO enlargement. Finland and Sweden have joined NATO. It has also failed to achieve its military objectives.”
“What Russia will do is test us below the Article 5 threshold – in other words through hybrid warfare – but we are already seeing that every day,” he added.
The Finnish president also said he remained calm about the future of US forces in Europe, arguing that Washington depended heavily on its European presence because of military bases on the continent that enable operations in the Middle East.
“Not least because of the military hospitals in Germany treating wounded American soldiers,” he said. “So America needs us – not as much as we need them, perhaps, but they do need us.”
Meanwhile, Poland is in talks with the United States about increasing the American military presence in the country, including the possible redeployment of troops from Germany. Reports of changes to US troop rotations in Poland have, however, been denied by local officials.
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